The new Bin Laden video have some liberals already talking defeat and some cheap labor conservatives jumping for joy. It seems 'conventional wisdom' says that the image of Bin Laden will have the masses running in support of the President.
But there is a problem with that.
This is not the age of 'conventional wisdom'.
Bloggers, cell phones, the Black vote, voter registration drives and 527s has thrown everything you used to think about Presdential elections out the window. The real rule is that no one knows the rules yet. That's what's making this race so interesting.
Why i think Laden's effect will be non existant.
1. Most folks have already made up their minds. This is not an on the fence election. This election is about the direction of this country. Is the future more war and fear or is there a better, different way to solve this terrorism problem. And is the war on terror worth sacrificing health care, social security, education and the other problems we all know we have. The majority have made their decision.
2. The fact that Bin Laden is still threatening us shows the failure of the Bush administration. Bin Laden is 'the face' of terrorism for America. He's the guy we all want. He's the mastermind. But the fact that he is still around taunting us is a problem for Bush. We spent billions of dollars for what?
I feel that whatever the pundits are saying is usually wrong. They have been wrong about everything. I still think that the election will not be as close as they are saying. The polling data is messed up. This has been a very bad week for Bush and the Ladin tape is not good news.
The passionate folks are those against Bush. They will be out in droves. And elections are all about turnout. That's some conventioal wisdom I still believe.
In a kind of related note: Ray gives his own thoughts on widom via audio!